RESEARCH OF METHODS OF FORECASTING ATTACKS
ON INFORMATION SYSTEMS
Natalia A. Golovacheva
Senior Lecturer, Department of Information Security,
Volgograd State University
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Prosp. Universitetsky, 100, 400062 Volgograd, Russian Federation
Nikita E. Andreichenko
Student, Department of Information Security,
Volgograd State University
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Prosp. Universitetsky, 100, 400062 Volgograd, Russian Federation
Abstract. The article analyzes the methods of forecasting attacks on information systems.
Within the framework of experimental studies, the best method for predicting attacks on information
systems has been identified. At the present stage of society’s development, the problems of
information security come to the fore in most areas of the company’s activities. This is due to a
significant number of informatization projects currently being implemented. Most of them are
aimed at building a unified information space in order to optimize the processing of large volumes
of various kinds of information, including ensuring its reliable storage and prompt access for
participants of information exchange. Priority tasks in this direction are: identification, analysis
and classification of existing mechanisms for the implementation of threats to information security;
assessment of possible damage; identification of basic measures to counter threats; elimination
of vulnerabilities; development of security criteria and protection mechanisms. One of the means
of solving these problems is the detection of computer attacks. Malicious impacts on information
systems can be presented in the form of network attacks. A network attack is an intentional
action by third parties aimed at establishing control over a local or remote computer or computer
system. As a result of attacks, attackers can disrupt the network, change account rights, receive
users’ personal data and implement other goals. Network attacks by the nature of the impact on
the network can be divided into active and passive. The active ones affect the network, which
may cause the network to malfunction, or modification of its settings. This type of exposure
leaves traces in the network, which is why it is immediately calculated that it will be detected. A
passive attack is carried out without affecting the network. But her work violates network
security. It is much more difficult to detect it than the active one due to the lack of direct
intervention. Basically, the purpose of the attack is unauthorized access to protected information,
distorting it or intercepting it. In the first case, the data is changed, in the second, access is
performed without interfering with the data structure.
Key words: information system, vulnerability of the information system, attack on the
information system, information security threats, network attacks, interval forecasting.
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