ESTIMATION OF THE COMPUTER NETWORK

LOAD SHORT-TERM FORECASTING METHODS ACCURACY

Lyudmila K. Gomazkova

Postgraduate Student, Department of Telecommunication Systems,

Volgograd State University

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Prosp. Universitetsky, 100, 400062 Volgograd, Russian Federation

Ivan D. Seryozhenko

Student, Department of Telecommunication Systems,

Volgograd State University

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Prosp. Universitetsky, 100, 400062 Volgograd, Russian Federation

Alexander I. Trofimov

Student, Department of Telecommunication Systems,

Volgograd State University

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Prosp. Universitetsky, 100, 400062 Volgograd, Russian Federation

Abstract. Nowadays, the nature of the load of the users on computer networks is unpredictable, 
and the degree of such unpredictability tends to increase. There are also conditions for the constant 
changes in the architecture of the computer networks due to the increase in the number of the 
different wireless networks compared to the cable infrastructure in whole. Therefore, the category of 
the methods of the short-term forecastination seems to be the most suitable and promising methods
for predicting the behavior of the network traffic, since this group of methods allows you to do a quickly 
respond to different ongoing changes in the architecture of the network and to an increase or decrease
in user’s load on a computer network. The article provides a review and a brief description of some 
methods of short-term forecasting. The estimation of the accuracy of the prediction of the considered 
methods is also given in this paper. This estimation is based on a time series (data array), whose 
elements were the number of packets in the network per second of time. The data array was obtained 
as a result of processing a network traffic dump, which collected using the Wireshark computer network 
analyzer program.
Key words: network traffic, network load, short-term forecasting, exponential smoothing, Spencer’s 
smoothing.

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